Russia's Birth Rate Increase Predicted for 2028

Rosstat predicts that the natural population decline in Russia will continue until 2046, but there will be a turning point in the dynamics of the total number of births: from 2028 it will begin to grow and will increase annually until 2044. This follows from the new demographic forecast of Rosstat (for the period until the beginning of 2046), which RBC reviewed. It does not take into account the population living in new regions of Russia (Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions).

By January 1, 2046, 138.77 million people will live in Russia, excluding new regions, which is 7.68 million less than as of January 1, 2023. The population from 2024 to 2045 inclusive will decrease by an average of 332 thousand people annually; positive migration growth will not be able to compensate for natural decline, Rosstat believes.

We are talking about the average (base) version of the forecast; low and high options will be presented by the end of 2023. In December of this year, Rosstat will also present a demographic forecast for Russian regions and federal districts, the department indicated.

The demographic forecast was calculated taking into account the results of the 2021 All-Russian Population Census; it takes into account current demographic trends and national projects and federal programs implemented by authorities at various levels aimed at supporting motherhood and childhood, as well as other socially vulnerable groups of the population, Rosstat said. RBC wrote in detail about the preconditions included in the forecast earlier.

In general, the forecast looks quite balanced, says researcher at the Institute of Economic Policy. E.T. Gaidar Igor Efremov. “This forecast includes fairly realistic scenarios for fertility dynamics. Indeed, we can expect some increase in the total fertility rate in the future (although in the very next few years it will probably not grow noticeably if government policy in this area does not change,” says the demographer.

Main forecast parameters

Rosstat predicts that Russia's population will decline over the next 23 years, but the rate of decline will slow. “The natural annual population decline will decrease by almost one and a half times - from 600.7 thousand people in 2023 to 402.4 thousand people in 2045 - due to an increase in the birth rate from 1.25 million babies in 2023 to 1.43 million babies in 2045,” the statistical service notes.

However, demographic trends turned out to be worse than at the beginning of 2020, when Rosstat presented its previous demographic forecast, before the coronavirus pandemic. Thus, the previous forecast in its average version assumed that by the beginning of 2036 (the extreme point of that forecast) about 143 million people would live in Russia, and the new forecast provides that by this time the population will be about 141 million people.

The number of births, as expected by Rosstat, will decline from 2023 to 2027 (1.24 million babies will be born in 2023, and 1.14 million in 2027) and will begin to grow from 2028. In 2045, the birth rate is projected to be 1.43 million. Thus, the number of births per thousand population will increase from 8.5 in 2023 to 10.3 in 2045, and the total fertility rate (the number of children per woman) will increase by 0.29 compared to 2023 and amount to 2045 1.66.

Migration growth, although positive over the entire forecast horizon, will decrease slightly - from 233 thousand people in 2023 to 221.8 thousand people in 2045. As a result, the annual population decline in 2023–2045 will average 333.7 thousand people, but will be reduced by more than half - from 367.7 thousand people in 2023 to 180.6 thousand people in 2045, it follows from the forecast.

By 2030, the population of Russia, according to Rosstat, will decrease by 3.19 million people compared to 2023, and will amount to 143.25 million people.

Population structure and life expectancy

Life expectancy at birth will be 73.1 years in 2023 (versus 72.73 years in 2022), Rosstat expects. By 2030, the figure will increase to 75.79 years, but in the average case it will not reach Russia’s national development goal, which implies its growth to 78 years by this time. According to Rosstat, life expectancy will reach the 78-year mark by 2037, and by 2046 the figure will rise to 79.83 years.

According to the forecast of the statistical agency, life expectancy for women in 2045 will be 83.24 years, and for men - 75.89 years.

Speaking about the structure of the population, Rosstat notes that the share of the country’s female population will be higher than that of the male population over the entire forecast time interval. However, the predominance of women over men will gradually decrease: if on January 1, 2023, there are 1,151 women per thousand men (68.1 million men and 78.35 million women), then in 2045 there will be 1,138 women per thousand men (64.91 million men and 73.86 million women).

The trend towards population aging will remain relevant for Russia, follows from Rosstat data. Thus, the share of the population under working age (children and adolescents under 15 years of age) will decrease from 18.5% in 2023 to 15.6% in 2045, and the share of the population over working age will increase from 24.5% in 2023 to 26 .9% in 2045. At the same time, the share of the working-age population will likely stagnate: it will be 57% in 2023 and 57.5% in 2045.

Possible other forecast trajectories

A decline in Russia's population in the foreseeable years is almost inevitable, Efremov believes. “But in the case of more favorable demographic development (the dynamics of life expectancy and the magnitude of migration growth), Russia’s population losses may be lower than predicted: 5–5.5 million instead of 7.7 million [by 2046],” he says.

In addition, in his opinion, government demographic policy measures—supporting the birth rate, combating the main causes of premature mortality, etc.—can compensate for “most of the predicted decline.” With the right approach, “from the mid-2030s, this could even ensure an increase in Russia’s population,” admits Efremov.

The expert believes that Rosstat presented a rather pessimistic view of life expectancy. “The recent history of growth in life expectancy in Russia, as well as the experience of some other countries in Eastern Europe that have already traveled a similar path, show that this indicator in Russia will grow faster than predicted,” says Efremov.

The demographer also draws attention to the fact that Rosstat expects a virtually constant migration increase over the entire forecast horizon (just over 200 thousand people per year). But this indicator is difficult to predict, and its actual dynamics in the future will depend largely on Russia’s economic success, he emphasizes. “If Russia can become a more attractive country for living (and not just for working), and the economy and incomes of Russians grow fast enough, then migration growth will probably be greater than predicted. On the other hand, the deterioration of the economic situation in Russia may lead to a decrease in migration growth below the forecast,” concludes Efremov.